I have no beef with acoustic drums, what I'm trying to point out is if one day the differences in sound and feel (and look if that matters) will become relatively small, more people (especially youngsters) will choose the more convenient, more flexible or cheaper option. I just see how fast the world can change. We have internet, VR, AI, electric cars, space tourism etc. I don't think stuffing a bunch more sensors and a few terabytes of samples into edrums to make them a lot more capable is so far away, looking at the speed of computer development.
I get what you are saying. And have lived through 50+ years of dramatic and often surprising changes. Surprising in that so often where we see technology heading isn't where it ends up at all.
When I was a kid, magazines totally predicted that using computers for music notation would be one of the first things to come.... Turned out it has been of the last and most challenging - coming after a whole bunch other stuff that wasn't on the list. Digital audio wasn't even on the radar. And yet, has been the biggest game changer.
When digital sampling drum machines came after the Simmons drums, the future of drum recording seemed so clear. These totally realistic sounds that we could program into such perfect performances, relatively easily, and with such reliability and low cost seemed so clearly to be the path.... Sure it was clunky early on - but certainly it would get better. For a while there, the world of music became so enamored with it (drum machines) that many of that had been regularly doing sessions, just simply weren't. For a number of years, the lion's share of the work was in programming drum machines.... particularly down in the trenches. And the ability to do this got better and better....
But... so did other stuff... example.... in 1987, my lowly home studio's bump up to 16 track with a new board cost about $8000 (this was the most budget "prosumer" set-up available). To do that at an actual pro level - would've been about 50k (minimum). Plus mics, compressors, reverb, delays, and cabling, and patch bays, etc. etc. etc. And the fact is - without that real pro recorder and desk, it was near impossible to record consistently professional sounding drum tracks.
But by 10-15 years later - there was no need for that $25,000 tape recorder... With decent mic pre-amps I could capture drums that would sonically stand up to pro standards - and on a home desktop computer with a $1000 audio interface. And it's done nothing but get better. Back in the day, I'd buy a $500 stereo compressor and that's what I would get - one stereo compressor. Now I can buy a digitally modeled version of that same piece of gear as a plug-in for $100 - and can use it 4, 10, 20 times - simultaneously in a mix. That's one way the big studios would just kill you - with their racks and racks of outboard gear. That's just no longer the case.
The point is - while electronic drums have been steadily progressing - traditional audio recording has progressed in leaps and bounds and in ways no one could have imagine.
There was a time where if I needed quirky drum sounds, I'd reach for samples.
If I needed something that sounded programmed, quantized, something like the most of the dance records of the time - I'd again turn to samples - maybe pull out the drumkat or just bang stuff out on the keyboard.
But now? Sure I still do some stuff that way. But progress in digital audio recording has never made it easier to reshape and mold acoustic performances.... I can change timings, I can change tempos (after the fact), I can re-pitch, I can reshape transients, make drums sound drier and tighter - or more ringy - all after the fact, if desired.
My point is the whole equation of convenient, flexible or expense is as cut and dried in favor of electronic drums as it might seem.
Live - they're convenient - if we're dealing with a capable stage monitoring environment in place. Because they make no noise by themselves - so amplification is always an added expense, and anything above, way way soft is going to be a quite the additional schlep.
Live flexible - depends on what we need. A concert tour trying to recreate a lot specific and really varied sounds within the same same performance - excellent. A typical wedding gig? Moving from cocktail hour to Mack The Knife to disco classics - to current radio hits in quick succession? Yikes - really not nearly as flexible or rewarding.
But yes - maybe the will all get better - because for sure, anything is possible. And certainly throwing a boat load of sensors with lightening fast processing to sort them out. But always remember we are constantly fighting physics here - processing takes time and what we're trying to emulate is an instrument that has ZERO lag. So to be able to process more gestures - maybe use cameras to track things like brush sweeping, whatever - we can probably do way more than we're doing right now. But can we get it fast enough. Because for us to be able to perform like drummers, to use our skills and timing to shape a performance response time from hitting the pad to the sound coming out of the speaker has to be wicked fast.
Maybe we'll get there.... but I fear there is way more to it than just adding sensors and a bunch of sample memory. And I'm just not sure there is enough of a market to pay for taking it there. Not when what we have - and have had for 10+ years - meets the needs of the largest parts of the market. But we'll see....
... and I'm sure it will be surprising.... and probably not at all as we imagined it would be.
